Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
